New York braces for flurry of same-sex weddings

Ceremonies are booked from the Four Seasons to Gracie Mansion, where the mayor himself will officiate at the wedding of two aides.

Yet even before New York joined five other states and the District of Columbia in legalizing these marriages, the trend's economic and social impact was becoming visible since Massachusetts led the way in 2004.

It can be seen in impersonal statistics and in the deeply personal stories of gay couples, their supporters and the opponents of this cultural shift.

An estimated 9% of the 581,300 same-sex couples in the USA have married in this country since 2004, according to studies by the Williams Institute at the UCLA School of Law.

In several reports, drawn on data from state

•About 50,000 same-sex couples have married in places where it is legal and during the time it was legal in California.

•An additional 30,000 couples who say they're legally married may have wed in Canada or Europe.

•About 38% of same-sex couples living in states that allow them to marry are currently married.

•The divorce or dissolution rate for same-sex and opposite-sex couples remains about the same, about 2% of couples per year in any state that has marriage or civil union registrations.

Gay marriage appears to have had no measurable impact on the rates of marriages, divorces or childbirth among state residents who are not gay, says Brad Sears, executive director of the Williams Institute.

Child custody and parental rights cases are too few and too scattered among the courts to establish any pattern, Sears says.

New York can expect a cloudburst of wedding confetti come July 24, Sears says. He estimates, based on other states, that about half of all same-sex couples will marry or have a civil union in the first three years after such ceremonies become legal.