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2010 less turbulent for US commercial property sector but prospects negative, analysts say
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US commercial real estate investors may have to wait until next year to see their returns start to grow as they are likely remain to remain in negative territory in 2010, according to analysts.
The greatest declines probably occurred in the third quarter of 2009 although fourth quarter figures are yet to be published, says the latest report from the research arm of real estate services company CB Richard Ellis.
‘The worst is behind us because values won’t be dropping as fast. That translates into total returns as well,’ said Serguei Chervachidze, CBRE Econometric Advisors Capital Markets economist.
‘The worst is behind us because values won’t be dropping as fast. That translates into total returns as well,’ said Serguei Chervachidze, CBRE Econometric Advisors Capital Markets economist.
Basing its analysis on the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries Property Index, which calculates total rates of quarterly returns based on a very large pool of privately held commercial real estate properties, it says that so far, total returns have fallen by double digits since the peak levels seen near the end of 2007.
For US office properties, total returns have fallen 23%, for warehouse and distribution centres returns have fallen 21%, retail property returns are down 15% and apartment building returns are down 23%, according to the NCREIF index.
For US office properties, total returns have fallen 23%, for warehouse and distribution centres returns have fallen 21%, retail property returns are down 15% and apartment building returns are down 23%, according to the NCREIF index.
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